Time Ahead by Ryan Zabrowski - Afterword

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AI is likely destined to be the most transformative technological advance in history. It is advancing at lightning speed with an economic and societal impact hard to overestimate. 

AI has become monumentally important in big data because it enables the breathtakingly rapid extraction of complex data through a centralized learning process. AGI—the epitome of AI advancement—is a revolution in learning, going beyond narrow expertise into the deep end of human-like cognitive abilities. It not only crunches numbers and analyzes data but also possesses emotions, makes decisions based on subjective states, tackles complex problems, learns from experiences, understands languages, and exhibits an array of cognitive skills.

AI & ROBOTICS

AI is the intellectual underpinning for robotics. It serves as the “brain” while sensors and mechanical devices act as the “body.” While robots have been performing repetitive tasks and replacing humans in hazardous work for many years, recent events have created a dramatic, almost inconceivable acceleration in their capabilities, thanks to machine learning and AI. 

AI is estimated to create 97 million new jobs by 2025. Given the pace of technological progress, it’s inevitable that we will soon be living in a world served by a billion robots. At some point in the future, a robot-to-human ratio of two to one will exist, with 20 or 30 billion robots doing everything the 10 or 15 billion humans on the planet don’t want to do.

As with any new technology, there are advocates and dissenters when it comes to AI. One of the major concerns voiced by opponents is that workers in manual labor jobs will be sacrificed on the altar of AI and robotics. But along with many market analysts, I believe that is a specious argument. AI is not destined to destroy jobs so much as it will replace some jobs with new occupations, eliminating much of the “dirty, dangerous and drudgery” currently being done by humans, as the next chapter explains.

I see AI and machine learning as the genesis of the next revolution. As in the past, skeptics will insist that the new technology will deprive millions of their livelihood, but as in the past, they will be proven wrong. People are not going to lose their jobs; they will adjust to the new economy and new careers and enjoy a reduction in the number of hours spent working.

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING

I believe the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be one of mankind’s greatest advances. Does that surprise you? Could getting safely wherever you want to go without having to do anything but breathe literally change the world?

Consider that a daily 45-minute commute each way translates into 22,500 minutes or 375 hours a year going to and from work in a car. AVs will give back roughly 20,000 hours of productivity to that commuter over their working life—a gain of 10 years!

If someone told you they could give you an extra 10 years of life to do whatever you wanted, would you not jump at that opportunity? That’s what AVs will do. While the impact on the automotive, trucking, insurance and real estate industries is incalculable, AVs will have far-reaching effects on virtually every business sector. The intangible benefits, while harder to discern, are the ones that will be the primary drivers of productivity: enhanced creativity, productivity and time; less stress, auto injuries and deaths. 

The productivity gains from artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, the mitigation or elimination of threats from space, adversaries, weather and pandemics, breakthroughs in energy, free trade and autonomous driving—all will contribute to a safer world, enhanced productivity, a vigorous economic environment and a robust, enduring stock market. That’s cause for optimism and a brighter future for our offspring. 

AGING PROGRESS

How and why people change and age as they get older is a subject of continuous debate. Man has long pondered the concept of an extended lifespan. That aspiration has evolved from a pleasant notion to an approaching reality as serious money is being poured into longevity research. The big question seems to be whether aging is inevitable or if it can be slowed or even reversed.

Many species age much slower than humans and some that don’t appear to age at all. When sick or injured, jellyfish can transform cells into a younger state that will eventually grow into adulthood all over again. In fact, barring death from predators, jellyfish could live virtually forever. Whether humans have the same cellular “machinery” remains an unanswered question, but if we do, as many researchers believe, it’s going to be a game changer.

People living in “blue zones” live exceptionally long lives. Scientists studying centenarians conclude there is something genetically exceptional about them in that they might carry unusual genetic variants that extend lifespan, including DNA repair and protection of cells from damage caused by free radicals.

It’s simply a matter of time, money and computing power that will enable full DNA diagnostics and the elimination of single nucleotide diseases like diabetes, cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s through gene therapy. Once accomplished, it’s logical to assume science will continue to evolve and decipher DNA and cell repair, ultimately leading to human longevity.

LONGEVITY & THE STOCK MARKET

An incontrovertible correlation exists between human longevity (time) and stock market multiples. As humans live much longer, thanks to genome technologies and other therapies, their investment horizon will substantially increase. Their risk of running out of money will also increase, so they will have to secure higher rates of return from their investment portfolios. That means higher allocations to equities, which will likely result in a massive escalation in demand and an unprecedented, sustained bull market, largely based on investor expectations.

The result is that the price and value of businesses will keep going up because the multiples in the stock market will keep going up. Those that claim otherwise simply do not have a grasp of what the future has in store for mankind.

HUMANS & MICROCHIPS

A statistic that would surprise most people is that over 50,000 people worldwide have had a microchip implanted in their body. The technology that is accelerating their use is the brain-computer interface or BCI, which allows people to control machines using their thoughts.

A relatively small but impressive and well-funded group of visionaries are leading the advancement of BCI capabilities, including Elon Musk’s Neuralink and Synchron, funded by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos. The near-term focus of BCI research is primarily directed at individuals with serious physical impairments and enfeebling diseases.

Eventually, BCIs will be as much a part of our everyday lives as robots, autonomous driving, living well past 100 years and other technological breakthroughs.

ECONOMIC IMPACT

The potential economic and technological impact of BCI is almost immeasurable. its impact in the field of medical research alone will change the lives of tens of millions of disabled and impaired individuals. 

Roughly one in four American adults suffers some form of disability. Studies indicate that providing the disabled with the assisted technology to lead more normal lives and become employable is a huge boon for the economy. Considering that emerging technologies will enable everyone—including the disabled and those with debilitating illnesses—to live longer, more productive lives, the benefits that will accrue to the financial markets are obvious.

WE WILL JUST KNOW IT

The way we have acquired knowledge for thousands of years will someday be supplanted by the BCI. In the future, a tiny microchip resting on the cerebral cortex of schoolchildren will bequeath them some 22,000 hours of time they would otherwise have spent sitting in classrooms, hopefully learning about mathematics, spelling, language, history and chemistry one lesson at a time. Now they will be mentally connected by an internal computer the size of a human hair and be inestimably smarter than they are today. 

Humans will just know everything that Google knows, everything that artificial intelligence (AI) knows, everything that mankind has learned since he first rubbed two sticks together and discovered fire.

They won’t have to learn; they will just know.

All that’s needed for all this to happen is time. The tech sector refers to this as latency, the delay between a user’s request and an application’s response. For those with BCIs, latency will be instantaneous. They will not only instantly know everything that has ever been learned in history but be able to instantly communicate with anyone on Earth using just their mind. BICs will help people overcome life’s apprehensions and uncertainties by giving them the superlative confidence that comes from knowledge. They won’t have to speculate; they will just know.