“One of the most valuable lessons I’ve learned is to think in probabilities.” -Ryan Zabrowski
When evaluating a business or investment, create a range of scenarios, assign probabilities to each, and calculate your median expectation. But here’s the key: even if the worst-case scenario plays out—like launching a business right before something unpredictable, like COVID—you need to ensure you have access to capital or cash on hand to weather the storm.